Bird flu study published after terrorism debate

By Malcolm Ritter
Associated Press

The second of two bird flu studies once considered too risky to publish was released Thursday, ending a saga that pitted concerns about terrorism against fears of a deadly global epidemic.

Both papers describe how researchers created virus strains that could potentially be transmitted through the air from person to person. Scientists said the results could help them spot dangerous virus strains in nature.

But last December, acting on advice of a U.S. biosecurity panel, federal officials asked the researchers not to publish details of the work, which identified the genetic mutations used to make the strains. They warned the papers could show terrorists how to make a biological weapon.

That led to a wide-ranging debate among scientists and others, many of whom argued that sharing the results with other researchers was essential to deal with the flu risk.

Bird flu has spread among poultry in Asia for several years and can be deadly in people, but it only rarely jumps to humans. People who get it usually had direct contact with infected chickens and ducks. Scientists have long worried that if the virus picked up mutations that let it spread easily from person to person, it could take off in the human population, with disastrous results.

The two teams that conducted the controversial research eventually submitted revised versions of their papers to the federal biosecurity panel. They said the changes focused on things like the significance of the findings to public health, rather than the experimental details themselves.

The panel announced in March it supported publishing the revised manuscripts, saying it had heard new evidence that sharing information about the mutations would help in guarding against a pandemic. It also concluded that the data didn't appear to pose any immediate terrorism threat. The government agreed in April.

The benefit of scientists sharing data from the new paper "far outweighs the risk," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday.

For bioethicist Art Caplan, the controversy's most important lesson was the regulatory committee's "slow realization that blocking published papers about dangerous information in medicine and science is pointless." By the time a paper is ready to be published in a major journal,?its contents have been distributed?through emails and the web, "which can be hacked by those who really want to know," notes Caplan,?a contributor to msnbc.com.

?"If censorship is to be a weapon against the misuse of dangerous knowledge, it will have to be invoked much earlier in the research process -- and much sooner," says Caplan.

One paper, from Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and colleagues, was published last month by the journal Nature. On Thursday, the journal Science published the second paper, from a team led by Ron Fouchier of the Netherland's Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam.

Both papers tested the ability of the altered bird flu viruses to spread through the air between ferrets, none of which died from those infections. The Fouchier paper reports that the virus could spread this way by acquiring as few as five specific mutations.

Two of those mutations are already found frequently in strains of the virus. And the other three could arise during infection of people or other mammals, a new mathematical analysis in Science concluded. But the likelihood is unclear. An author of the analysis compared the situation to earthquake prediction.

"We now know we're living on a fault line," Derek Smith of Cambridge University and the Erasmus center told reporters. "It's an active fault line. It really could do something."

Fouchier said the ferret results don't give a clear answer about how deadly an altered virus would be in people.

Eddy Holmes of Penn State University, who studies the evolution of flu viruses but did not participate in the Fouchier or Kawaoka studies, said those works present the first good experimental evidence about how the bird flu virus could mutate to become more easily spread between people.

The studies are "a useful frame of reference" for studying that question, but not the final answer, he said.

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PFT: Ravens' McKinnie irked over weight criticisms

AP

Maybe it really wasn?t Anthony Hargrove?s voice saying, ?Give me my money.?

The video/audio of a comment supposedly made by the former Saints defensive end during the third quarter of the 2009 NFC title game provides further proof of Drew Brees? point (even if it wasn?t articulated the best way possible) that the media has more power than anyone realizes.

The NFL, however, fully realizes.

And the NFL used the power of the media to make millions believe on Monday that Saints defensive Anthony Hargrove said, ?Bobby, give me my money? after being told by assistant head coach Joe Vitt that Vikings quarterback Brett Favre may have suffered a broken leg in the 2009 NFC title game.

The seed was planted and fertilized when a dozen members of the media covering Monday?s appeal hearing received an invitation to witness an encore performance of former prosecutor Mary Jo White?s summary of evidence.? The relevant excerpt from the transcript of the media session contains White?s explanation, comments from NFL Security chief Jeff Miller, comments from NFL spokesman Greg Aiello, and two of the members of the media ? Peter King and Jim Varney.

White initially explained that the video contains Hargrove?s ?voice and picture.?? After the video was shown once to the members of the media, Aiello suggested that the media pay attention to Hargrove winking and smiling after hearing that Favre broke his leg.? White later claims that Hargrove ?smiles and winks and states, ?Bobby, pay me my money.??

Varney asks White, ?How do you know it?s Hargrove?s voice??

White, perhaps not recognizing in that moment the ironic link to a very common lawyer joke, says, ?Because you can see his lips moving.?

But here?s the problem, and I didn?t notice this the first time I saw the video.?

When Hargrove?s lips can be seen moving, his voice can?t be heard.

Only after Hargrove?s face is fully obscured by the head and shoulders of defensive tackle Remi Ayodele are the words ?give me my money? audible.

No one has questioned this because the media present at the session was told ? and in turn told the rest of us ? that Hargrove said, ?Bobby, give me my money.?? Even Peter King, who seemed curious and a bit skeptical in the transcript, affirmatively stated twice in his article following the media session that Hargrove said what the NFL claims he said.

Watch the video.? At most, Hargrove is the one who says ?Bobby.?? By the time ?give me my money? comes out, Hargrove?s mouth and face and head are obscured by Ayodele.

Also, don?t forget that Hargrove didn?t apply the hit that resulted in Favre possibly having a broken leg.? Instead, Favre had been hit low by McCray and high by Ayodele.? So why would Hargrove be asking for any money at all?

None of this changes the fact that, barring evidence that the phrase was added artificially after the fact (I?m not saying it was . . . yet), someone said ?give me my money.?? Which supports the conclusion that there was a bounty on Favre.

But I don?t believe the video shown by the league to the media shows that Hargrove said it.? And I can?t believe that the NFL presumes conclusively that he said it.? And I can?t believe the NFL sold it as fact to the media.? And I can?t believe the media swallowed the hook.

And I can?t believe I didn?t pay close enough attention to figure it out before today.

And given Hargrove?s passionate denial that it?s his voice, I believe him.

This serious flaw in the presentation of the evidence necessarily undermines the league?s entire investigation, further reinforcing the importance of asking tough questions about the proof, the process, and all other aspects of the case.? Regardless of whether the players are guilty or innocent, the NFL has peddled to the public, via the media, a stream of inconsistencies, mischaracterizations, and embellishments that raise legitimate concerns about the competence and/or the motives of everyone whose fingerprints are on the file.

UPDATE 8:44 p.m. ET:? A prior version of this item explained that, when Hargrove?s lips are moving, his words aren?t audible.? I?ve studied the video several more times, and it now appears to me that Hargrove is the one who says, ?Bobby.?? However, by the time ?give me my money? is uttered, Hargrove?s face and head and mouth are obscured.? Thus, the video doesn?t prove who said it.? It could have been Hargrove.? It could have been Ayodele.? (It would make more sense if the league were claiming it was Ayodele, since he hit Favre high when ?Bobby? hit Favre low.)? It also could have been someone outside of view of the camera, talking about something completely unrelated to Favre?s apparently injury.

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Windows Phone 8 Looks Great, but It Screws Existing Users [Windows Phone]

Microsoft announced Windows Phone 8 today, with multi-core support, a new Start screen, native code sharing with its forthcoming Windows 8, a new Wallet feature for mobile payments, SD card support, more screen resolution support, and IE 10. Phew. More »

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Worthy And Hassle Free Way Of Selling Structured Settlements

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MrMecc: RT @Kozza: Family Feud is for people with no jobs and kids suspended from school.

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More evacuations as winds fuel Colo. wildfire

DENVER (AP) ? Authorities ordered more evacuations as fire crews struggled against powerful winds fueling a wildfire that has charred more than 87 square miles of forested mountains in northern Colorado.

The firefighting force has steadily increased and by Sunday night officials said about 1,750 personnel were working on the fire, which was sparked by lightning and was 45 percent contained.

The High Park Fire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins has destroyed at least 181 homes. The figure represents the most in state history, surpassing the Fourmile Canyon wildfire that destroyed 169 homes near Boulder two years ago.

Julie Berney with the Larimer County Sheriff's Office said firefighters dealt with winds of 30 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph Sunday. Some rain moved through Saturday evening, but it wasn't enough to quell the fire.

"The problem is that when you have a fire like this, even if it rains it evaporates before it hits the ground," Berney said.

Despite the winds, fire officials said crews Sunday were able to maintain most existing fire lines, with the fire chewing through about 1,000 more acres.

Incident commander Bill Hahnenberg said he was pleased with the firefighters' progress.

"A scenario could be we'll lose some line, and then we just go after it the next day and the next day," he said.

On Sunday afternoon, high winds prompted fire managers to ground all helicopters working on the blaze and to send 96 notices to residents, ordering the immediate evacuation of the Hewlett Gulch Subdivision in the Poudre Canyon area north of the fire. It was unclear how many homes were affected.

Sunday night, Larimer County officials said evacuations orders were also issued for Soldier Canyon and Mill Canyon areas. The officials said 331 notifications were sent.

A high wind warning was in effect all day, and crews are expecting more of the same Monday: winds of 30-50 mph, low humidity and high temperatures.

As firefighters try to get the upper hand on the blaze, which has burned large swaths of private and U.S. Forest Service land, local authorities have dispatched roving patrols to combat looting.

On Sunday, deputies arrested 30-year-old Michael Stillman Maher, of Denver, on charges including theft and impersonating a firefighter. The sheriff's department said Maher was driving through the fire zone with phony firefighter credentials and a stolen government license plate.

His truck was later seen near a bar in Laporte, and investigators say they found a firearm and stolen property in the vehicle.

"There's a handful out there that are taking advantage of others," said Sheriff Justin Smith, adding that "if somebody's sneaking around back there, we're going to find them."

Also Sunday, a fire erupted in the foothills west of Colorado Springs, prompting the evacuation of some cabins and a recreation area near the Elevenmile Canyon Reservoir. U.S. Forest Service spokesman Ralph Bellah told The Gazette (http://bit.ly/MiQvne ) that the fire was reported at about 12:30 p.m. and quickly grew to up to 100 acres.

Meanwhile, a fire near Pagosa Springs in the southwestern part of the state has grown to 11,617 acres and is 30 percent contained. Hot, dry conditions Sunday are expected to fuel the fire, which was sparked by lightning May 13.

Across the West:

? California: Authorities are evacuating homes in eastern San Diego County as firefighters battle a 100-acre wildfire that has destroyed one structure. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection says the fire began Sunday afternoon in a rural area northeast of Campo and near the Golden Acorn Casino.

?New Mexico: A wildfire in southern New Mexico has destroyed 242 homes and businesses, and firefighters are working to increase containment and keep an eye out for possible lightning.

The 59-square-mile Little Bear Fire in Ruidoso is 60 percent contained. Dan Bastion, a spokesman for crews fighting the fire, says most of the fire is in the mop-up stage, but crews need to build more containment on the fire's active west side to deprive it of fuel.

? Arizona: Firefighters are focusing on protecting electrical transmission lines near a 3,100-acre blaze on the Tonto National Forest in northern Arizona. Officials say hot weather and steep slopes remain a concern, and firefighters are on the alert for thunderstorms and possible lightning strikes. The fire is 15 percent contained.

___

Associated Press writer Amanda Myers in Phoenix contributed to this report.

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